How Ireland’s economy rebounded after the financial crisis

The “Celtic tiger” now leads the eurozone in growth

Prior to the global financial crisis (GFC), Ireland’s economy was a stellar performer, earning the country the moniker of “Celtic tiger.” The onset of the GFC caused a major economic contraction and a housing crash — but today, Ireland is once again the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone. In this blog, I examine the key elements that allowed Ireland to regain its footing.

Key components of the recovery 

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Turkey: An economy at a crossroads

Its past included strong growth. Its present is in turmoil. What might the future hold for Turkey?

John GreenwoodIt is not a stretch to say that Turkey is beset by troubles both external and internal. Syria’s civil war to the south has caused an unanticipated economic and social strain on the country, and fears of continued terrorism have slowed the engine of tourism. Meanwhile, the government is seeking to bolster its power after an unsuccessful coup attempt last July. How the country handles these myriad issues could set the stage for either an economic recovery or a further descent into crisis.

Syrian civil war stresses

Turkey shares a 500-mile border with Syria, and it is estimated that over three million refugees have found their way north since hostilities began six years ago. Absorbing such an influx would be

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Could hyperinflation be next for Venezuela?

Why we are likely witnessing the end of ‘Chavismo’

We’ve all seen the news reports – lines for food and basic staples that stretch for blocks, increasing violent crime, kidnappings and corruption are making day-to-day life in Venezuela a real struggle. It wasn’t always like this, but in the past 20 years Venezuela has gone from one of the richest countries in South America to one of the poorest. To make matters worse, the country is now in the throes of near hyperinflation reminiscent of post-WW1 Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe in the years before dollarization in 2009.

How could a country blessed with abundant natural resources, tropical weather and nearly 1,800 miles of Caribbean coastline descend into chaos so quickly? And what will the future hold for Venezuela?

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Will Trump’s fiscal stimulus lead to inflation?

Without a surge in monetary growth, fiscal policy alone doesn’t indicate inflation

John GreenwoodFinancial markets have reacted strongly to the election of US President Donald Trump. While equities in the US and elsewhere have risen strongly (reflecting expectations of stronger growth and therefore improved corporate earnings), bond prices have fallen (reflecting higher yields, in turn a result of higher inflation expectations). As debate continues around President Trump’s fiscal stimulus program, a key question has emerged: What role might his policies play in creating inflation?

A large fiscal deficit does not necessarily lead to inflation

Among the main drivers of higher inflation expectations, one is

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History rhymes: Comparing China today with 1920s Japan

China faces two main options in dealing with its economic distortions

John GreenwoodThe Chinese currency has been depreciating since January 2014, and the balance of payments has weakened. There has been a substantial decline in the current account surplus relative to gross domestic product (GDP) since 2010 and, more recently, persistent private sector capital outflows.

The question is: How long will the Chinese yuan continue to depreciate and how much will China’s exchange reserves decline?

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