Tariffs, earnings and politics: What’s moving markets this week?

Weekly Market Compass: Global summits and key data releases top the list of what to watch

Time to read: 7 min

There is no shortage of events to watch this week: The European Union and China will meet to discuss foreign investment, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are meeting in Finland, and US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gives his semi-annual testimony to Congress. But can any of these events direct the market’s attention away from the strong second-quarter earnings season?


Six issues driving global markets

Weekly Market Compass: Examining trade tensions, job reports and the concerns of the Federal Reserve

Time to read: 5 min

As I write this early on July 9, global stocks have hit a two-week high1 and the price of copper is rallying. Markets are clearly focusing on positive data at the moment, which is a welcome change. Below, I highlight six important things that happened last week — both positive and negative — and several upcoming issues to watch.


Six ways the trade situation deteriorated in the past week

Weekly Market Compass: Administrations and corporations continue to respond to Trump’s tariff plans

Time to read: 3 min

I keep promising myself that I will stop writing about trade and protectionism in my weekly commentaries. And then virtually every week, something happens that forces me to address the topic once again. This past week, unfortunately, was no exception. In my mid-year outlook, I mentioned that my outlook is predicated on the trade situation not worsening materially — so it’s important that we closely follow trade developments. Last week, there were six trade developments that are helping to place downward pressure on stocks:


What’s in store for markets in the second half?

Weekly Market Compass: Five trends to watch for during the remainder of 2018

Time to read: 6 min

We are coming to the mid-year point for 2018, and the past six months have felt like six years. Markets have experienced a significant uptick in volatility, yet equity investors may not have much to show for all their troubles. Year-to-date performance as of June 22 shows many major indices in the red: the MSCI All Country World ex USA Index lost 3.53%, the MSCI EAFE Index is down 3.43%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 6.08%. One of the few exceptions is the S&P 500 Index, which is up a modest 3.04% for the same period.1 What happened? And what are markets telling us about the global economy?


Central banks take center stage

Weekly Market Compass: Many major banks are tightening, but trade threatens to disrupt economic progress

Time to read: 7 min

Central banks took center stage last week, with a trifecta of major central bank meetings. The clear theme was that most major banks are at least taking small steps toward monetary policy normalization. However, the central banks that are tightening may be caught by surprise if the trade situation worsens — which I believe is a strong possibility.

The Federal Reserve indicates another rate increase for 2018

First came the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), which took a