One of the favorite parts of my job is to talk directly with investors and their advisors about their investment questions: What forces are influencing the markets today, what lessons might we learn from history, and what changes —if any — should investors be considering for their portfolios in light of all this?
For now, COVID-19 has taken away that face-to-face contact, but that doesn’t mean that this conversation can’t continue. On May 20 at 4 p.m. EDT, I’m co-hosting a one-hour live webinar (register here) to discuss a variety of important topics:
- Scenarios for recovery. Our base-case macro outlook calls for lockdowns to persist for at least a quarter, coinciding with a severe contraction in economic activity. Ultimately, we believe that expanded testing will enable select segments of the economy to reopen, with a broad recovery to emerge with fits and starts.
- Lessons from China. China appears to have successfully managed the initial outbreak and is reopening large segments of the economy, with large percentages of the industrial labor force returning to work. We’ll also take a look at China’s experience in 2003 with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which may prove an apt way to think about how economic activity may play out in the coming weeks and quarters.
- The view from Washington. The federal government has provided multiple phases of fiscal stimulus, including direct support to small business, households, state and local governments, and hospitals, Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears to be “all in” as a lender of last resort to the financial system and providing liquidity support to the financial markets. My colleague Andy Blocker, Head of Government Affairs for Invesco, will give us his view from Washington, including what polling has to tell us about the state of the November elections and people’s reactions to the handling of the crisis so far.
- Market implications. We’ll discuss how US equities have behaved in past recession bear markets and examine the bottoming and recovery seen in 1987 and 2008.
- Long-term perspective. I believe the No. 1 threat to investment portfolios is unbridled emotion. From the tech boom to the so-called fear trade to the COVID-19 outbreak, investors have often positioned themselves poorly at the most inopportune times. What should investors be thinking about in terms of how to navigate this crisis?
As a reader of this blog, you know that these are topics that we’ve been covering in-depth for some time. I hope you’ll be able to join us on May 20, at 4 p.m. EDT, for this webinar to get the most up-to-date information and the opportunity to connect — at least digitally — during this momentous time. Register here to join.
Blog header image: Benjamin Punzalan / Unsplash
The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of May 19, 2020. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.