Interest rate outlook: US GDP of 2.8% expected in 2018

Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world

Rob WaldnerTime to read: 3 min

US: Neutral. We expect US rates to stay range-bound, caught between growing trade worries and above-trend US growth. Core inflation continues to be benign, and we expect it to peak in the next two months at around 2.4%. After this, we see softer rental and service costs driving it below 2%. Assuming no large trade-driven shocks, US growth is likely to remain above trend for the rest of the year. It should be supported by increased energy sector capital expenditures, strong job growth and strong consumption. We expect 2018 gross domestic product growth of around 2.8%, 1% above the long-term sustainable trend. The risk of tighter global financial conditions due to trade-related tensions and the possibility of further tariffs in the next few months may cause asset price volatility. Treasury prices may benefit if volatility picks up.


Taking tally of the global rally

2018 Outlook: International stocks turn a corner, but what do the fundamentals tell us?

Time to read: 3 min

As we look ahead to 2018, it’s important to first recognize how significant 2017 has been for international markets. This is the eighth year of a global bull market, but prior to 2017, international markets had trailed the US for four consecutive years — and for six of the last seven years.1

2017 has been the first year since 2010 of global synchronized earnings growth, and expectations are for this to continue in 2018. We’ve also seen a broad-based acceleration in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth, with stronger growth in the US, European Union, Japan, Asia and Latin America. In fact, for the first time since 2007,


Could tax reform boost value stocks?

2018 outlook: A drop in the corporate tax rate could help create jobs and grow wages

Time to read: 2 min

As 2017 nears its end, US value stocks are mired in their longest stretch of underperformance versus growth stocks since the Great Depression, held back by low interest rates and easy monetary policy. In my view, the top issue that will help determine whether that trend continues or abates is US tax reform.

In late September, Republicans unveiled their proposal, which addressed the repatriation tax, household taxation and corporate taxation.