The US election: Real estate implications of a Trump victory

Considering the potential impact of five key policy proposals on the real estate industry

Max Swango

President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies represent a potentially sharp departure from the current policies of the Obama administration. As a result, investors are contemplating what the Trump presidency will mean for the direction of the US economy, as well as the subsequent implications for real estate markets.

While we are unlikely to gain clarity on the substance and priority of policies until Mr. Trump’s first 100 days in office, the checks and balances in the US legislative system — coupled with the slim Republican majority in the US Senate — make it unlikely that Trump would see all of his proposals passed into law in their current form.

With this in mind, we at Invesco Real Estate do not expect

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Trump’s proposals could have a mixed impact on the muni market

We assess what tax reform and infrastructure spending could mean for municipal bond investors

Larosiliere_Stephanie_sm_150dpi_RGBThe outcome of the US election, unexpected by nearly all accounts, presents a number of uncertainties for investors. As the markets and the world at large digest the implications of a Donald Trump presidency, we at Invesco Fixed Income consider how his proposed tax reform and infrastructure plans may affect the US municipal bond market.

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US election outcome favors US credit markets

Examining the sectors most likely to be affected by the Trump administration

Tony WongThe next few months should provide greater clarity on President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and details on key appointments in his administration. We at Invesco Fixed Income expect some volatility in risk assets as markets assess his likely policy direction. (Please see our recent blog: What will drive markets after Trump’s victory?) But over the medium term, we believe that the likely tone of the Trump administration is likely to be, on the margin, positive for US credit fundamentals and market dynamics.

Our initial view is that a Trump policy framework is likely to entail:

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What will drive markets after Trump’s victory?

The US election results bring short-term uncertainty, but policy will be key in the medium term

Waldner_Rob_sm_150dpi_RGBIn a surprising outcome, US voters elected Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. This result was viewed as unlikely by the market. In the short term, the market reaction may be driven by increased uncertainty. However, over the medium term, Invesco Fixed Income expects the economic impact of Trump’s policies to drive markets.

Although much of the attention of the campaign has been on personalities and temperament, there has been some basic policy framework laid out by the Trump campaign. There is much uncertainty about what will actually be implemented by President-elect Trump, but we believe there are a few key policy elements that will likely be implemented first:

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The election ends with a Trump victory. Now the real work starts.

Time will tell which campaign promises translate into policy reform

Karen Dunn Kelley 001

One of the most tumultuous and unprecedented presidential election campaigns in US history is now over, with Donald Trump ultimately emerging as the winner and Republicans retaining their control over both the Senate and the House of Representatives. But while we know who won, we don’t yet know what policy changes will come to fruition once the hyperbole of the campaign trail gives way to the reality of governing.

The ‘art of the possible’ and those devilish details

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